Flash=huge hardware megatrend

If you'd have told me that in 2011, two of our hottest tech clients, out of all the spaces in which we operate, were related to the disk drive industry, I'd have laughed out loud. But Fusion-IO and Pliant have turned out to be big likely winners this year and are on a tear. Basic idea: mechanical storage loses to solid state. $30B up for grabs all of the sudden. Flash technology has caught up in terms of reliability, while vastly superior in speed and energy costs and some very cool software bridged the gaps. We will see big exits for both of these companies in the next 12 months.

So what's the next hardware breakthrough? Just when you think a category is quiet...

$100 oil

It's pretty clear that $100 oil is coming back either now or in the next couple of years. I predict it will settle back down to mid 80's when Libya finally rids itself of Qaddafi but by 2015 we'll see $150/bbl again. The X factor is whether the Saudi people demand a Democratic state and revolt, or there is a major security setback in Iraq. What does this mean for alternative energy? Means biofuels may have turned out to be the dark horse winner of the clean tech investment sweepstakes. I thought the space was dead two years ago because technology hadn't broken through and capital was fleeing the space. I am happy to have been wrong since we have about 30 of these companies as clients...Amyris changed the game. Also means electric vehicles are winners.

Watch gas prices. Gas is most closely competitive with alternative energy. If gas prices go above $6 and stay there, that's very good news for wind and solar and other renewables related to generation. Then the question becomes, will higher commodity prices take the oxygen out of the capital markets and starve these companies right when they need cash for expansion.

Still looming large is what we do with coal. Methanize it cheaply (watch Luca and Ciris) and cleanly and you have a winner.

5 things every new CEO should do/not do

I've recruited too many CEO's to count now. There are some clear do's and do not's as one joins a company. Here are 5, to start:

1. Show some humility. Don't show any arrogance and you don't need to posture. You've been annointed CEO for a reason. Look the part. Be statesman like and balanced. Listen carefully. Get the lay of the land. The team will respect you more for this approach and you will need their support, even if you think they all need to go, to get the rank and file comfortable and keep them focused.

2. Engage Founders and/or the technical team early and often. Without them, there is no company and no edge.

3. Talk to customers, as many as possible. Get on the road and show the team you're willing to put your back into the work.

4. Don't "ready fire aim" with people. Give them a chance. Evaluate them on their own merit after understanding their situation and atmosphere, challenges, etc. Don't take anything for granted or at face value.

5. Give the Board regular updates. They're nervous about the hire, though they might not show it. Every hire has risk, particularly CEO hires. Get them comfortable. AND BE PREPARED FOR YOUR FIRST BOARD MEETING. First impressions are key.