$100 oil

It's pretty clear that $100 oil is coming back either now or in the next couple of years. I predict it will settle back down to mid 80's when Libya finally rids itself of Qaddafi but by 2015 we'll see $150/bbl again. The X factor is whether the Saudi people demand a Democratic state and revolt, or there is a major security setback in Iraq. What does this mean for alternative energy? Means biofuels may have turned out to be the dark horse winner of the clean tech investment sweepstakes. I thought the space was dead two years ago because technology hadn't broken through and capital was fleeing the space. I am happy to have been wrong since we have about 30 of these companies as clients...Amyris changed the game. Also means electric vehicles are winners.

Watch gas prices. Gas is most closely competitive with alternative energy. If gas prices go above $6 and stay there, that's very good news for wind and solar and other renewables related to generation. Then the question becomes, will higher commodity prices take the oxygen out of the capital markets and starve these companies right when they need cash for expansion.

Still looming large is what we do with coal. Methanize it cheaply (watch Luca and Ciris) and cleanly and you have a winner.