Here are some predictions:
1. We'll find that Q3 GDP was hurt by the debt debate and uncertainty there.
2. Market won't find new catalysts and dog days of summer will go on, so blockbuster IPO's may be tough to come by this quarter. You may see some delayed offerings.
3. Q3 earnings will be fine, S&P valuation will look cheap. Buying will resume.
4. IPO window will open again briefly Q4.
5. New bubbles forming beyond social networking. No popping of digital valuations until the first company throws up on revenue growth forecasts. I believe this will happen around mid 2012. Hopefully it won't be as bad as March 2000.
6. Clean Technology/Advanced Energy will kick up again (see below) by Q1 of 2012.
Right now, the people market is dominated by financial motivation and career growth, which is good. But be careful, that greed could turn to fear if the realities of the world economy finally hit technology/digital media. People will become guarded and cautious again. So what's the takeaway? Grab talent while you can!!!!
Other observations:
1. Buy when everyone else is selling. So people should invest in clean tech again. Technologies are maturing, commodities look pretty good, oil prices solid. The fundamentals actually look reasonable for this space. And valuations are back down to earth. It's a way better time to invest here than it has been in frothier times. And yet capital is hard to come by for too many companies. Ironic!
2. Don't be surprised if this whole euphoric feeling around technology hits the wall in the next 12 months. I hope I'm wrong but the "spidey sense is tingling." Great companies will get built regardless, but the driving forces right now in too many situations remain monetary vs passion for a space, product, company, etc. Make sure you and your teams, no matter what you do for a living, are prepared to ride out some seriously turbulent times. Those who do will be rewarded in the long run.
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