HP

OK so my last blog turned out right in the Leo area. Employees didn't like him, flip flopped on strategy, no one wanted the PC biz, on and on. But at least he wasn't a sleezebag like someone else (predecessor)....

Another big search firm, big company board misfire in a growing lineup. But the Board had the courage to admit their mistake and make a change vs let the company languish further. That is something worth cheering. Too bad they couldn't find a suitable internal candidate but that just speaks to the former CEO's failings in org development because Leo didn't have time to find the men's room, much less really develop anyone, before it became clear he was in over his head.

So let's discuss Meg for a minute. I personally like this hire for a few reasons:

1. She's got something to prove after being humiliated by a far left activist lawyer named Gloria and beaten by the same politician who created the pension mess CA is facing right now. You gotta be pissed when you lose out handily to an old world radical, even if he's doing some good things at the moment (some...).

2. She's smart as a whip. And I'll take smart over any other factor at the end of the day. Why was Apple so successful? Jobs is just smarter than his competitors. That's really the bottom line.

3. Female with a track record of success where Fiorina came from Lucent, one of the worst managed companies in the history of mankind and rotten to the core ethically. Gotta love seeing more female CEOs out there in technology.

4. Internet paradigms constantly shifting and ultimately wag the IT dog if you really think about it. Cutting edge Internet companies are often followed by enterprise customers so this DNA actually maps better than people think. Certainly better than construction software (Autodesk) going to Internet company (Bartz/Yhoo). So she can set a winning vision with that background and you just hope she empowers a senior leadership team to go get it done at the BU level because her GM credentials are iffy at best, at the $100B level. But this DNA is as good as any. What would you do? Go to IBM? Great company, not sure there's a fit for SV culture. EMC? No one there. DELL? No one there. Intel? Anyone left at Intel just didn't get a call worth taking...Apple might have been good but they don't have a lot of great P&L people. Interesting that they didn't at least poke around here. Always thrilling to poach from a huge winner.

Whitman is a risky choice. But I'll take a risky choice over another usual suspect or a tired horse kind of hire any day of the week. I'll root for them, in part because Ray Lane is one of my favorite people in the Valley and I'd love to see him turn this ship around. HP's a BUY in the low 20's, Greece or no Greece...I'd short Apple above $450 and buy HP under $25 any day of the week.

Good luck to all!