Monday, June 25, 2012

EU Salvation=Germany, which=disaster?

Forget the headlines you'll inevitably see over the next few weeks, months or even years.  "EU pledges solidarity.  So and so is open to Eurobonds.  So and so has just bailed out Spanish banks.  Greek leaders promise to...whatever..."  Anything you hear and see out of the press is just a band aid masking the real problem, which is today invisible to most observers of this long-simmering crisis.  Where the EU is hemmorraghing is inside itself.  It comes down to culture and history whether this region will survive long term.  The prognosis doesn't look good.

There is only one solution to the EU's problems--to create a super state with a common financial framework, including a one-size fits all fiscal policy, thereby lowering the cost of debt and bringing financial order back to the region. Without this, more bailouts may be possible for awhile longer, but they won't actually fix anything.  The systemic problems of high unemployment which accompany necessary but pain-inflicting austerity in a downward economic death spiral will persist as no one will lend to a country not committed to austerity.  Then you have cultural blowback, as we've seen in France, where socialism is firmly back in power, imperiling France's ability to attract foreign capital and bring balance back to its state-run economy.  People don't like pain.  They avoid it and seek pleasure.  This is humanity 101.  Get over it.  So ultimately, this merry go round of awarding bailouts for austerity which leads to blowback and political upheaval will end poorly, in chaos.  The solution?  A central bank with teeth, and a central governing structure with fangs--led by Germany.

But don't hold your breath, because the architect of this superstate would of course have to be its strongest member--Germany.  And this is the same country that sought world domination less than 100 years ago--twice! Germany, ironically enough, is treading lightly here, clearly hoping that the PIIGS will proactively pursue this superstate, not wanting to suggest this idea too strongly given its checkered past.  Problem here?  The other states are led by clueless politicians who are more interested in re-election for their own basic survival, than the harsh financial realities they're facing.

So make no mistake, Germany's terrible past will come up again, overtly or tacitly as the rest of Europe grapples with this simple reality: consolidate around German leadership or dissolve the EU and wither for a generation while emerging markets and the US gap you by a mile, relegating you to second world status.  Because that's where the weaker EU member states are headed in a hurry.  No natural resources, an uncompetitive work force and most damning, a lost generation of unemployed young workers reliant on the state for basic survival.  Which will take another generation to unfold.  Game will be long over by then.

Good luck to all!

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